Value Betting Simulator With Graph
The role of this value betting simulator is to help you understand the big fluctuations you can face while using this strategy.
A betting simulator is capable of visualizing the possible outcomes of a sports betting scenario or strategy.
The purpose of this value betting simulator is not to offer you a correct prediction of your future profits.
Nothing can simulate this. Using the above tool helps you imagine and rationalize the risks and possible outcomes of sports betting.
Sports betting simulators allow bettors to practice and refine their strategies without taking the risk of possible failures and losses.
What is a sports betting simulator?
A sports betting simulator is an algorithm that helps users familiarize themselves with the betting process and test new strategies.
A betting simulator also helps its users to develop a better understanding of how different odds can cause losing/winning streaks.
By replicating real-time betting dynamics such as variance, they provide a practical way to build experience before placing actual bets.
What are the functionalities of Sports Betting Simulators?
The main functionalities of sports betting simulators are designed to replicate multiple possible outcomes of a betting scenario/strategy.
Sports betting simulators allow users to review their betting history, track performance, and identify which strategies are working best.
Some simulators even offer tutorials and feedback to help users improve their betting techniques. Such a tool is the staking simulator developed by BetMetricsLab.
What is a value betting simulator?
Value betting simulators focus specifically on value betting—a strategy that involves identifying odds that are higher than they should be based on statistics.
A value betting simulator is designed to help bettors understand the phenomenon called variance. It also helps to visualize profit spikes, losing streaks, and the range of profits a bettor can achieve in the long term.
A value bet simulator will display higher maximum profits when users increase the positive expected value of each bet placed.
The main goal of such simulators is to help bettors understand that even the best strategies can end up in a loss for a short period.
Components of the value betting simulator
1. Number of bets
The simulation of a value betting activity offers a more accurate and better-visualized graph when the number of bets is high.
Variance in value betting can have a major influence even when the number of bets placed is significant, such as 500.
For this reason, I advise using at least 1000 bets in your simulation as a starting point.
2. Average odds and stakes
The stakes you use will not affect the trendline of your value betting simulation. However, changing the average odds will have a direct effect on how variance can influence your long-term returns.
Higher odds cause higher fluctuations and a higher possibility of not making profits even after a significant number of bets.
3. Expected Value
The Expected Value in betting, when it appears in percentage like in the simulator above, is a prediction of how much profit you can expect to win per bet placed.
This percentage value represents the average net return you can expect after a large number of bets placed on the same odds with the same expected value.
In the value betting simulator above, the expected value is input by yo,u and it represents the net return you expect to make on your bets.
This value is used to calculate the true possibility of the outcome, which is then used to simulate the betting balance.
Please note that while the expected value can provide an estimate of potential betting outcomes, it is based on averages and probabilities, so variance and fluctuations will modify the results.
4. More simulations
Because of the effect of variance in value betting, the simulator above performs 5 simulations for each set of input data.
This visualization helps you understand the overall trend of your strategy and the possible highs and lows when it comes to profit potential.
Please note that value betting simulations have the main role of predicting possible scenarios only.
Based on my experience, when it comes to actual value betting, many factors will change that can result in similar or different profits compared to what you have seen in the simulator.