Value Betting vs Arbitrage Betting Comparison
Comparing value betting with arbitrage betting is important to knowing which tactic will serve you the best.
We compare these strategies by checking the key characteristics, profitability, risk, and implementation.
Which is better: arbitrage betting or value betting?
Profit Potential
The profit you can make with these strategies depends on your country of origin, access to bookies, skill level, starting capital, risk tolerance, and many other factors.
Value Betting
Value betting generates an average Return on Investment (ROI) between 2-6% in pre-match betting.
With live +EV betting, you can reach a ROI even above 7-8%. The profitability depends on the bettor’s bankroll, access to bookmakers, and betting strategy.
It is also possible to have a significantly higher ROI with +EV betting than 8%. When a betting strategy gets more profitable, it tends to cause faster maximum stake limitations.
Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting offers an average profit range from 0.5% to 8% per bet. With small betting volumes, you can earn $500-$800 monthly with sure betting.
Full-time arbitrage bettors can generate over $3,000 in monthly income.
Value betting generates significantly more profits in the long term compared to arbitrage bets. In my experience, the average difference is around 40%-80% based on the strategy.
Strategy Complexity
Value betting
It identifies overpriced betting markets by being able to know/calculate the true probability of an outcome.
Bettors can approach +EV betting through three primary methods;
The first method involves detecting value through odds analysis. You can do it with the help of services that require minimal sports knowledge.
The second method relies on the bettor’s experience with specific sports.
The third method focuses on historical data and algorithms that can define outcomes with pricing mistakes.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting finds odds discrepancies across many bookmakers to guarantee a profit.
This strategy requires bettors to bet on all possible outcomes with the right stakes.
Bettors must work in various betting sites and make fast decisions to capitalize on momentary price differences.
Sure betting requires more steps to complete compared to +EB bets, thus it has more hidden sources to make mistakes.
Risk Level
Value betting
Value betting presents a higher risk compared to arbitrage betting. This approach faces the variance in betting phenomenon by not covering each outcome of a betting market.
The risk of losing the whole betting balance with value betting is significant. Bettors can decrease this risk with a low-risk tolerance stake management system.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting involves higher operational risks.
Challenges with arbing are rapid odds changes, bet cancellations, stake limitations, and payment processing complications.
Arbers must solve these risks by using many betting accounts and sticking to basic smart betting rules.
The risk of losing the whole betting balance with sure betting is almost non-existent. Only a huge human error would result in losing your whole capital.
Value betting is riskier compared to arbitrage betting because it does not hedging every outcome.
Starting Requirements
Value betting
Value betting requires least a starting capital of €200-300. Bettors with €1,000-3,000 can generate profits more quickly.
+EV betting works best when bettors have access to many bookmaker accounts and can spread their capital across them.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting has significantly higher starting capital requirements compared to value betting. Success depends on accessing many betting platforms and maintaining a diverse bookmaker portfolio.
Sure bettors need to manage their accounts to maximize potential profits and cut the risk of getting restricted.
Arbing requires a bigger starting capital because of the need to cover each outcome of a market.
Technology and Tools
Value betting
Value betting relies on odds comparison sites like BetBurger and OddsJam. Pinnacle serves as the primary reference for true odds. Specialized software helps value bettors identify value opportunities by comparing odds across different bookmakers.
Some services used for value betting do not reveal the methods they use to define the true probability of an outcome. For this reason, some value bet finders are not as trustworthy.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting uses dedicated arbing software like Rebel Betting. These tools focus on rapid scanning and immediate opportunity identification. The technology must provide fast calculations and real-time odds comparisons to be effective.
Arbing services are simple and are based on the same principles.
Generally speaking, value betting services tend to be cheaper than sure bet finders. Both types of tools need to find wrong odds as fast as possible, but arb finders are simpler and more trustworthy.
Facing stake limitations
Value betting
Value bettors need to use significantly smaller stakes compared to arbers. For this simple reason, they tend to face restrictions significantly later.
+EV bettors face high betting balances when they generate significant profits. Stake limitations in these cases also mean a successful and very profitable result of a strategy.
Arbitrage betting
Arbers need to use higher average stakes compared to value bettors. This results in faster stake limitations.
Higher betting stakes also mean a higher chance of growing a betting balance faster. With sure betting, a high betting balance does not mean significant profits.
In summary, arbitrage bettors can face stake limitations with the same betting balance but with smaller profits.
A big difference between arbing and value betting is the role of exchanges, sharps, and brokers.
While value betting at exchanges, sharps, and other similar platforms is almost impossible for regular bettors, these operators are an important part of arbing.
Recommendation & Conclusion
Both arbitrage and value betting strategies offer profitable approaches to sports betting. +EV betting provides a more sustainable, higher-risk method with mathematical foundations.
Arbitrage betting offers quicker profits but requires more complex implementation.
Beginners should start with arbitrage betting to develop skills, a decent starting capital, and risk tolerance. As expertise grows, bettors can gradually explore more complex value betting tactics.
Success with both strategies depends on continuous learning, strategic thinking, money, and risk management.