Value Betting: Guide & Resources You Need
Value betting is a math-based, simple strategy that requires a higher risk tolerance compared to similar tactics.
With the higher risk of +EV betting comes increased profitability in the long run.
Placing value bets is significantly simpler than arbitrage or matched betting, and below you can find everything you need to know about this strategy.
Risks
The risk of losing money with value betting in the short term is fairly high.
You are not covering each outcome of a market.
The risk of losing gets way lower when placing over 500 bets.
Starting Capital
I started value betting with $100 and still succeeded.
The bigger your starting bankroll is, the faster you can generate profits with +EV betting.
A great starting capital to start with would be at least $1500.
Profitability
The average ROI of value bettors is between 5%-8%.
You can make a profit of over 10% of your total stakes placed on value bets on niche markets.
Live +EV betting is more profitable than pre-match.
Difficulty
Value betting is the easiest strategy to learn compared to arbing, matched betting, or trading.
It is also the easiest tactic to practice because you need to place only 1 bet on each market.
Resources/Guides To Value Betting
How to find value bets?
There are three main methods to spot value betting opportunities.
Each has different advantages and significant weaknesses.
I listed the three tactics I used in the past few years that could benefit both beginners and advanced bettors.
Check the in-depth guide on how to spot value betting opportunities.
Strategies to approach value betting
This guide will help you have a better understanding of how this +EV betting works.
There are simple approaches that most value bettors use, and there are advanced tactics that will help you earn more.
You can find a step-by-step walkthrough guide to avoid common pitfalls while learning about this strategy.
Check the in-depth guide on value betting strategies or the following relevant topic on EV betting on exchanges.
Software to use for value betting
Each value betting software has its advantages, weaknesses, and target audience.
Some of them are focused on European bookies, others on US-only.
I tested each value bet finder and ranked them based on scanning speed, accuracy, bookie coverage, and filtering system.
Check my tests about value betting software.
Simulate your profitability
The amount you can make with value betting is different from one player to another.
Use the value betting simulator and visualize the profit potential and the risks you need to face while placing +EV bets.
Losing streaks: variance in value betting
Winning all the time with value betting is not possible. Everyone will face losing streaks while placing +EV bets.
Understanding the phenomenon called variance is an important aspect if you want to trust the process.
If you have doubts about the reliability of value betting, check the following guide on variance in value betting.
What is value betting?
Value betting is a betting technique based on mathematics that allows you to beat the bookmakers in the long run based on placing bets on overpriced betting markets.
In sports betting and gambling, it’s a common saying that “the house always wins”.
Fortunately for us, with the proper strategy like value betting, we can get an “edge” over the bookmakers.
Value betting is the process by which a bettor can spot an outcome with higher odds than its probability of actually happening.
These betting opportunities with a positive EV (expected value) can be found with odds comparison sites such as BetBurger or OddsJam (for US bettors).
Placing bets on these wrong odds gives you an advantage (an edge) against bookmakers, and makes value betting the most profitable sports betting strategy.
What is an example of value betting?
Below is a real-life example of a value betting opportunity:
- Tennis player Novak Djokovic is playing against Daniil Medvedev
- Both are top players, but most of the bookmakers think that Daniil has a 44% chance to win this match. For they are offering the odds of 2.10
- In many cases, the bookies are missing a piece of new information about the players (like Djokovic having a minor injury or being too tired because of a long match with someone else)
- In this case, the chance of Medvedev winning can grow to 55%
- If you are still able to bet on Daniil to win at the odds of 2.10, you have an edge over the bookie
How much can you make with a value betting strategy?
The realistic ROI (Return on investment) you can make on pre-match value betting is between 2% – 4%.
In live value betting, your return on investment can get even up to 7% – 8%, depending on your strategy and access to soft bookmakers.
The main influencing factors of how much money you can make with value betting:
- How many bookmakers and accounts do you have access to
- The starting bankroll you have for betting purposes
- Your money management strategy
- The software you use for scanning bookmakers
- Variance in value betting
- How much time do you invest in learning and placing value bets
How much money do you need to start value betting?
In general, value betting requires less money to start than arbitrage betting. The starting capital for value betting can be even $200-$300.
But it is important to mention that the more money you are starting your betting activity, the faster and more profit you will generate.
If you start with $1000 and you can roll it over 50 times in a month, your profit will be $1000 on an average ROI of 2%.
Value betting profits are based on how much money you can roll over in a period of time.
But having the possibility to start with $2000 or $3000 can double or triple your monthly income.
The more money you have available for value betting, the more value bets you can place without waiting too much for a match to end.
The more bets you place, the bigger stakes you use will increase your income.
Time is money, so the higher your hourly profit is, the more it is worth staying 8-10 hours in front of the computer.