What is value betting? Positive Expected Value (EV) Explained
After trying and also practicing many betting strategies, staking methods, and so-called bulletproof systems I can say that value betting is the most profitable and reliable betting strategy in the long run.
Like other similar betting strategies, value betting has some advantages and downsides as well.
I created this article to share the majority of my knowledge about positive EV betting or value betting by another name.
What is value betting? Positive EV betting explained
Positive expected value (EV) betting is the same strategy but with different names. Value betting is the process of finding betting opportunities where the bookies are not able to define the real probability of the outcomes.
Explained in simple words following a value betting software is the strategy or system based on finding overpriced betting outcomes that can offer value for bettors who aim for long-term profits. This strategy or loophole is available to every bookmaker without exceptions.
Even sharp betting sites such as Pinnacle or Bookmaker.eu make many mistakes daily. The goal of value bettors is to figure out which outcome is offered with wrong odds or betting lines.
1. Football value betting example
Finding value bets on football is fairly easy but following events in play will offer the most opportunity for finding wrong betting lines or odds.
Let’s assume that based on statistics and the stage of the match the home team has a 50% chance to win the event or make a draw.
For this outcome, the true odds without the profit margin of the bookie should be 2.00. Some betting sites get some crucial with a slight delay. They stick to the odds of 1.92 (the same odds but including the juice of the betting site).
The majority of betting sites drop the odds to 1.83. If you can catch that odd of 1.92 at your betting site, you will get a positive EV of around 5% on your bet.
2. Tennis positive EV (value) betting example
I will take a simple value betting example with two tennis players with the same performance. Both of them have a 50% chance to win the event. In this case, betting sites will offer odds of around 1.85 – 1.90 depending on their profit margin.
The way bookies create odds is different in many cases. Some of them have their own system, while others tend to copy the odds of bigger betting sites.
As with the football value betting example, it’s not uncommon for bookies to miss some crucial information about players, and teams. This mistake will create positive EV betting opportunities.
In this tennis value betting example, if you can pick one of the players on odds higher than 2.00, you will place a value bet.
How does value betting work?
1. Understand what a value bet is
The first and most important step of this strategy is understanding and accepting the basics of what a positive EV bet is. Many bettors don’t accept the simple fact that placing bets on higher odds than their real probability of winning, will generate long-term profits.
This strategy is based on simple statistical and mathematical facts. Take coin flipping for example. You will win 50% of your picks in the long run. This possibility would mean the true odds of 2.
What would happen if you could get odds of 2.10 for this same event? Well, after many coinflips you will have a higher payout than your investments.
After 100 coinflips each with a stake of $100, your total investment would be $10.000. Based on simple statistics you would lose 50% ($5000). The other 50 bets would have a payout of 2.10*50*$100 = $5500 (without positive EV odds it would be $5000).
The additional profit of $500 is the result of positive expected value bets. You might experience a streak of losing 5-12 flips but if you play enough the statistical probability will always prevail.
Bet Metrics Lab was created to spot markets, sports, or odds ranges that cause these losing streaks or variances.
2. Trust the process of value betting
When I started value betting my biggest struggle was trusting the process even when I had a longer losing streak. Positive EV betting is based on long-term profitability, betting on overpriced odds or wrong betting lines, and a working staking plan.
If your strategy includes each of these, there is no way you will end up losing all of your money. I need to mention that there can be a big difference between thinking that you follow a good staking strategy and having one.
On the other hand, it’s not rare that we think the betting lines are overpriced while in reality, we can have a wrong approach. Most value bettors use sharp bookies such as Pinnacle or Bookmaker.eu to define the real probability of an outcome.
Based on my experience, even the sharpest bookies and bettors can make major mistakes and can offer overpriced markets. If you follow these betting lines you might often face a longer losing streak.
One of the most important factors for long-term success is getting information from a good source and trusting the process of positive EV betting. It might take placing 500+ bets until you see the benefits of this betting system but eventually, you will end up with decent profits.
3. Follow fast and accurate value betting software
I’ve been value betting with different methods. Finding positive EV bets manually is possible and I think it’s one of the most profitable and least detectable ways of making money from sports betting. Even the most sensitive betting sites let me grow my balance to a decent level until I got some kind of limitation.
A value betting strategy or system that does not require any kind of bookmaker scanner service will always need a decent level of experience. For this, each bettor needs to practice positive EV betting with the help of value betting services.
These betting algorithms compare odds from soft (slow) bookies with odds from sharp (fairly accurate) odds. Opting in for a similar service is essential not only for beginner bettors but even for advanced value betting strategies as well.
A value betting software can speed up the process and can help you find a hundred times more positive EV bets compared to value betting manually.
A fast and accurate value bet finder is capable of displaying overpriced odds before other bettors can spot them.
The biggest advantage of using a similar software is the time and energy you save by not being forced to constantly check each event one by one manually. This way you won’t get tired so fast and working even 12+ hours I less exhausting (based on my experience).
Is value betting profitable?
One of the most important things that a beginner bettor wants to know about positive EV betting is the amount of profit it can generate.
Positive EV (value) betting is the most profitable betting strategy by far if you compare it to other mathematical betting strategies such as matched betting, arbitrage betting, or trading.
The amount you can make with value betting depends on many factors such as your starting capital, the number of bookies you have access to, the country/state you are from, the value betting software, your level of experience, risk tolerance, value betting strategy, and some more.
If you are betting from countries such as the USA or UK, you will have access to many betting sites that support even bigger stakes.
Experienced sports bettors from countries with a high GDP and bookies that don’t handle big deposits and stakes with suspicion will have the opportunity to make over $3000/month fairly easily.
Football value betting strategies
Football (soccer) is one of the most popular and best sports for value betting. I have made a big part of my profits on football corners, goals, handicaps, and winner markets.
The number of big football events and fans is making football a sport where smart bettors will face fewer stake limitations. Many average bettors use even smaller markets such as correct scores, bets on players, cards, etc.
This way value betting strategies on football markets such as corners won’t be too outstanding when placing bets only on slightly overpriced markets when the matches are in play.
The best football value betting strategies:
- Pre-match football value betting on big events and main markets only (first league from European countries) so bookies won’t flag your account right away
- In-play football value betting on main events and markets: requires more experience but will help avoid stake limitations for a longer period
- In-play positive EV betting on smaller markets such as half corners, handicaps, and even cards: you will find more value bets with a higher return. I advise placing value bets on these markets and bigger mistakes (value bets over 5% – 7%) after using an account for at least several days or 200 – 300 bets. This way you will have slightly more chance of delaying the limitations.
Live/In-play value betting
Live value betting is the Holy Graal of sports betting. Each sports bettor who gets enough experience in this field will have a decent advantage over bookies and other bettors.
When the matches are in play, each betting site is making major mistakes and it is fairly hard for them to spot each of these. In sports such as basketball or tennis, the odds are moving so fast that sometimes even obvious mistakes will remain unnoticed for many seconds.
It’s not uncommon that betting sites get data with a slight delay so you can catch decent betting line differences on basketball or tennis.
In fast sports like these, the power difference between players and teams can switch in seconds. The majority of betting sites don’t have the resources to spot these on each event and every time.
Value bettors who have the time and experience to follow and analyze in-play events will spot many great opportunities. Tennis is a great example of these positive EV bets.
While live tennis value betting you can find odds differences between Pinnacle and your local betting sites. These are excellent only by themselves but sometimes even Pinnacle underestimates a situation. While watching WTA events, it’s very common for a player to destroy her opponent in a set.
Placing bets on breaks on these events generated a decent amount of profit for me. The biggest profits from positive EV betting will be generated by combining value betting software with common sense.
Is value betting risk-free?
Value betting is not a risk-free betting strategy/system. It is based on mathematics and long-term returns but each value bettor will face even longer losing streaks.
Even if you focus only on bigger mistakes, opportunities with bigger positive EVs, losing streaks of 8-12 bets are possible and you should have a fairly high-risk tolerance.
As I already mentioned, trusting the process and following reliable value betting software is essential to succeed.
Is value betting profitable? How much can you make with it?
Pre-match Value betting profitability
The simplest and most beginner-friendly and time-effective type is pre-match value betting.
The majority of bettors (speaking about sharp ones only) are focusing entirely on pre-match betting no matter what kind of strategy they follow.
On average, you can have a 4-7% ROI with pre-match value betting. The amount you can make highly depends on your risk tolerance and variance as well.
So, if your total stake were 10.000 Euros in a month, you can expect a profit of around 400-700 Euros with pre-match value betting.
This amount can be increased by having a well-built betting history like RebelBetting uses. This will help you exclude leagues, markets, and odds ranges that are not performing well.
The big advantage of EV betting on events before the start is the higher predictability and bigger success rate when the bettor does not have too much experience.
People focusing on this strategy tend to have a better success rate and higher profitability compared to in-play value betting.
I will explain why.
Live value betting profitability
Live value betting is by far the most profitable betting strategy. You can easily have an ROI of above 10% and even 15%.
There is a contrary in the sentences below. The first time I said pre-match has higher profitability and after that, I stated that in-play value betting is more profitable.
The thing is: up to a certain level of knowledge and risk tolerance, pre-match value betting is more profitable to most bettors.
When the matches are in play, you will need to have additional skills, high-risk tolerance, and persistence.
Many bettors think it’s almost impossible to make money while the matches are in play and the odds are moving so fast.
Well, if you start using the tools I mentioned in my best value betting software article, you can have a better ROI in the long run.
If you are willing to invest the time, energy, and money, you can make significantly more profits on in-play value bets.
But for this, you need to know and implement the following influencing factors:
Key factors influencing the profitability of value betting
1. Number of bookmakers and accounts available to you
For a successful and profitable value betting activity you will need access to licensed, hopefully, trustworthy, and slow betting sites.
Each soft bookie will limit your betting account sooner or later if you start winning.
So, having access to more bookies will help you stay in the game for a longer period.
2. Initial bankroll designated for value betting
Having a large starting capital can help you earn more right from the start but it’s not essential.
I started my betting activity with a relatively small bank. Even if you have only 100-200 Euros, you can start value betting.
But it is important to know that bettors with a decent balance of 1000-2000 Euros can place significantly more bets with higher stakes as well.
This will result in faster-growing profits.
3. Money management strategy
The stake management in your value betting strategy will have a crucial effect on your profitability.
A long-lasting bad decision can mean no profits or even losses.
If you really don’t have any idea about stake management, you should stick to a flat staking method that is slowly increased when winning.
And obviously, you can decrease it as well when facing a longer losing streak.
A well-managed staking plan would be using stakes of 2-3% of your actual betting balance to a certain level.
After growing your betting balance too big, you can decrease this % to 1-2% in order to handle them as “normal stakes” – psychologically speaking.
4. Software used for scanning bookmakers
The amount you can make with value betting highly depends on the value betting software you are using.
I handle this question as my mission to make people understand that a cheap tool is not always bad.
But in almost every case it is significantly worse than a premium/expensive EV bet finder.
I’ve used many value betting finders and the main outcome was that a cheap/free tool can help you to make a smaller profit.
But in most cases, these winnings will not be worth your time if you are planning value betting as a lifestyle/income source.
The scanning speed, market, and bookie coverage of a premium tool will help you make more profits from value betting than the price difference compared to a cheap scanner.
5. Variance in value betting
The variance in value betting (facing longer losing/winning streaks) is a big reason why people choose to avoid this betting technique.
To be honest, it was one of the main reasons why I stopped value betting for shorter periods.
I know for a fact that this is the most profitable betting strategy, but sometimes you simply can’t figure out why you are not making profits.
It’s not unusual that value bettors are not profitable for several weeks or even months in some cases.
Can you make money on value betting?
The answer is a strong Yes. You can make serious profits with value betting but it’s not the most predictable income you will achieve.
Due to the nature of this strategy, you are beating the house edge and statistical probability of an outcome ON AVERAGE.
The problem comes when you can’t bet enough bets to meet that minimum number of bets to beat the bookies on average.
In summary, you either become persistent for a long time or you will fail in the middle of your value betting journey.
6. Time invested in learning
The available bookmakers for Positive EV betting are a crucial part of your long-term success.
However, the amount of time you are willing to invest in learning about value betting will have the biggest impact on the amount of money you will make with value betting.
After several months of EV betting, I thought I was profitable enough and I know everything about this strategy to succeed for years.
In these moments it is not rare that bookies will notice your activity, markets, and odds ranges you use.
It might sound strange, but your long-term plans can be canceled by a bookie who decides to cut the odds on certain sports/markets.
By this, they will take away your statistical edge and make value betting almost impossible.
These are the moments when you either give up or try finding new markets/sports/bookies to make money value betting on.
There always be a new market/bookie that offers wrong odds/lines to make money on.
Conclusion
Value betting is the process of finding overpriced betting outcomes that can offer long-term profits when betting with the right stakes. Positive expected value (EV) betting is the most profitable betting strategy but it is not risk-free like matched betting.