Expected Value Betting Calculator: +EV Bet Calculator
An +EV betting calculator can define the true value of betting odds compared to the statistical probability of winning that bet.
A positive EV calculator for betting is used to measure the statistical advantage against bookies and statistics.
Value betting calculators often have only two input fields, such as the odds and the statistical probability of the outcome. These calculators require bettors to know the true chance of a betting outcome.
The EV betting calculator on this site has multiple additional and important input fields to calculate the value of betting odds. In these fields, bettors should insert the odds of the required market for both outcomes from a sharp betting site.
The main goal of this expected value betting calculator is to make the process of calculating +EV faster and easier. With this tool, you won’t have to calculate the statistical probability of the outcome; the software will solve this process and save you time.
How does the odds value betting calculator work?
- You need to use the decimal odds format (here is my Odds Converter if you are used to American or Fractional odds)
- In the overvalued odds box, you insert the odds from your local betting site.
- Sharp odds same outcome: you need to insert the odds for the same outcome from a sharp/accurate betting site. I advise using Pinnacle.
- Sharp odds of the other outcome: The odds for the other outcome, from an accurate bookie like Pinnacle.
How is the expected value calculated?
- You need to introduce odds for both outcomes from a sharp bookie. This way, the EV calculator is capable of defining the true odds for these markets by excluding the house edge.
- Other available EV calculators ask you to insert the true probability of an outcome. For this, you will need to use a different tool in order to figure out this number.
- Here, you will simply insert the overpriced odds you want to place bets on, and the odds from a sharp bookie for the same outcome.
This tool can be extremely helpful for bettors when looking for value betting software.
By making the calculations yourself, you can figure out if their way of defining Positive Expected Value aligns with your strategy or not.
How do you calculate the true positive EV (expected value) of odds?
The formula to calculate the expected value of odds is as follows:
(True probability of the outcome * Profits of the bet if win) – (True probability of the other outcome * Initial stake on the bet)
Example for odds EV bet calculation:
- Overpriced odds: 1.80
- Stake: $100
- Sharp odds same outcome: 1.58 -> without bookie edge: 1.632 -> True probability: 0.613 (value rounded up)
- Sharp odds another outcome: 2.50 -> ~2.58 without bookie edge -> True probability: 0.387 (value rounded up)
Overpriced odds EV (expected value) = (0.613 * 80) – (0.387 * 100) = $10.34
What does EV mean in odds?
In the world of sports betting odds, EV stands for “Expected Value.”
Expected value is a concept used in probability theory and gambling to determine the average outcome of a bet over a large number of simulations/samples.
The expected value of the odds represents the long-term average return you can expect from placing the same bet multiple times.
A positive expected value of an odd indicates that, on average, you can expect to make a profit from the bet, while a negative expected value suggests a loss.
In the context of sports betting, the expected value helps bettors identify betting opportunities with an advantageous return on investment (ROI) over the long term.
It is important to mention and understand that even a positive expected value does not guarantee a particular outcome.
It serves as a guide and possibility for long-term returns.
What is the role of a +EV calculator in sports betting?
The main role of a sports betting EV calculator is to correctly define the expected value of the inserted odds based on sharp bookie odds without the house edge.
What are the weaknesses of this positive EV betting calculator?
The main weakness of this calculator is that sharp bookies like Pinnacle do not distribute the house edge equally between outcomes. This can easily result in a higher house edge on one side of the bet. This EV betting calculator calculates the assumed house edge as equal on both outcomes. The approach results in a small discrepancy in defining the true odds for a specific betting outcome.
Is it worth using an EV bet calculation for each of my bets?
When you are a beginner, yes it is worth using the EV bet calculator. It would be best if you made sure that every bet you place (not offered by value bet finders) has a positive edge against statistics and bookies.