Algorithms to predict football matches

We’ve just released Get CLV — a one-click way to capture Pinnacle’s closing odds right before kick-off for any saved match/market. 
 
Beating the close is one of the strongest signals that you’ve made a good bet.
 
How it works
 
> Open the Football Predictions board.
>Pick a match + market and click Get CLV (paid members).
>After kick-off, open My Matches — look for CLV ✔ to view the closing odds table.
 
Use it with the Value Calculator
>Click Statistics on your match.
>Enter your book’s odds to see True Odds, EV%, and Kelly sizing.
>Compare your local bookmaker’s odds to the CLV table to check if you beat the closing odds.
>Finding in-play odds higher than the closing odds will increase your chance of making long-term profits.

Here is a short video on how this prediction software works:

Our football (soccer) prediction tool turns Pinnacle market data into actionable, model-ready signals.

For every upcoming match, we pull live odds for 1X2, handicaps, and totals, remove the bookmaker margin (de-vig), and display true probabilities and true (fair) odds.

You can then enter your own bookmaker’s price for each outcome to instantly see expected value (EV) and, when EV is positive, Kelly Criterion stake suggestions (¼-Kelly, ½-Kelly, full Kelly). If EV is negative, we’ll clearly advise to reduce stakes or look for a better price.

How does this algorithm help win more?

• Find value bets by comparing your odds vs Pinnacle and our de-vig “fair” line.
• Quantify edge with EV and transparent overround math.
• Size stakes responsibly with Kelly guidance when value exists.

What you get from this prediction algorithm?

• Leagues & markets: Major leagues and cups; 1X2 (h2h), Spreads, Totals (O/U).
• Clean UI: Fixture board, quick “Request Stats” modal, outcome cards, and mobile-friendly layout.
• Your-odds inputs: Per-outcome boxes to compare your book’s price vs Pinnacle.
• My Matches: Save, review, and manage past requests when logged in.
• Credits model: Free daily/weekly requests plus optional paid packs.

Why it’s different

• Uses Pinnacle’s efficient pricing as a baseline.
• Shows true probability, not just raw odds.
• Adds EV and Kelly so you can make data-driven staking decisions.

Ideal for bettors and analysts who want clear probabilities, quick value checks, and disciplined staking—without black-box hype.

During my betting activity, I have used many services and algorithms that can support my betting strategies and predict upcoming football matches more accurately.

Whether you are looking for a guide or algorithms to predict football matches correctly, here you can find both.

Football prediction algorithms based on odds comparison can offer the most reliable results in the long run.

To properly use these services, below you can find 6 tips on how to find better predictions and increase your winnings with their help.

How to predict football matches correctly?

To predict football matches correctly, you need to have access to historical data about events and tools that can analyze this database.

Another way to increase your winning rate and have more correct predictions is by focusing on odds fluctuations.

I will present you with several proven soccer betting strategies that can generate guaranteed profits even in the long run.

To have more correct predictions you need to follow strategies such as value betting. Another method to predict a straight win with decent accuracy is by using value betting software and placing bets with a huge positive EV.

1. Know the teams at least on a basic level

For predicting a football match based on our knowledge and statistical data, the right source of information is an essential element.

Being profitable in the long run means that your betting strategy can offer more accurate results than the odds offered by bookmakers.

Some bookmakers are almost unbeatable in calculating the real possibility of a winner in sports. Their odds can be so accurate that offering a profit margin of 2 still can generate long-term profits for the sportsbook.

Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of football players can offer you a big advantage in live betting.

While the match is in play, you can look at the stream and check how the players are performing.

2. Get professional in only certain leagues

Concentrating on every football league and player while predicting outcomes could be a waste of time. Many factors are changing rapidly, and it would take too much effort to follow each of them.

Focusing only on a few leagues will help you to have more in-depth statistics, watch more matches, and find more information about them.

Predicting a football match should not be based entirely on statistics. The information you find on the internet and the true odds of an upcoming event are also key factors.

These factors are very important in the long run and will offer a strong basis for your betting strategies and your success.

But having the knowledge and years of experience by watching matches on stream and betting on them can offer you an edge and sense in predicting certain outcomes in sports.

After 1-2 years of betting on football, I started realizing that I was gaining more and more knowledge in some leagues.

For example, my favorite leagues were German, Italian, and Spanish.

Only by watching the streams and how the players perform, I noticed patterns that helped me to find markets where bookies make mistakes constantly.

3. Focus on positive Expected Value

To predict football matches using odds you need to know the real possibility of an outcome and find bookies that offer significantly higher odds.

Some betting strategies like finding arbitrage bets or value betting require a big volume of bets placed to generate decent profits.

-> Read more on how to spot arbitrage bets in the following dedicated article.

Bookmakers make many mistakes because new information appears and they can’t update the odds fast enough.

Every time they are a little bit late and they do not drop the odds at certain markets, smart bettors are taking advantage of them.

Mathematical betting strategies will always outperform tipsters and experts, at least 99.99% of them.

Finding outcomes with wrong odds compared to these sharp bookmakers will guarantee a mathematical edge over bookies in the long run.

With this betting technique, you don’t need too much experience and knowledge in sports to have profitable predictions.

You just need to know which bookie is offering very accurate odds and compare your local sportsbook odds to these sharp lines.

If you want to predict football outcomes by yourself you will need to follow services that can analyze odds in seconds.

Figuring out how to win in football betting requires discipline and taking bets that hold real value and can generate profits even when facing big variances.

4. Focus more on in-play soccer events

Live betting can offer more accurate football predictions because of more information available for sharp bookies.

Before the start of the match, most of them offer odds close to the real probability of the outcome. Some bookies are very sharp and other operators tend to copy their lines.

So, you can easily notice that most bookies offer odds very similar to their competitors.

While a pre-match simple betting odds aggregator site can have a fast enough service to help you find overpriced odds.

This way you can see any discrepancy, any odds difference between bookmakers.

In-play betting predictions can offer more profits because the change of events and chances of winning can happen from one second to another.

Some sharp bookies can offer fairly accurate odds even in these moments. While others make major mistakes and offer the opportunity to place a football bet on odds higher than its chance to win.

5. Place bets after knowing the closing odds

There are two main approaches for pre-match football predictions based on overpriced odds. The first method focuses on the opening odds and offers odds that are significantly off compared to their true probability.

Focusing on these betting opportunities can lead to a fast limitation of your maximum stakes. Bookies are aware of the high chance of offering wrong football odds predictions in this early stage.

For this reason, waiting until they offer the final odds close to the starting point of the football event can lengthen the lifespan of your sportsbook account.

Placing bets based on football prediction algorithms close to the start of the event can also decrease the variance in the long run. Closing odds on football tend to be more accurate so the odds you use are closer to their expected value.

6. Know the motivation of teams

Most football prediction sites and software do not take the motivation of teams into consideration. This can have a big impact on your long-term results.

For this reason, a pre-match football prediction software that uses only statistics will always underperform compared to an odds comparison algorithm.

The latter software indirectly includes information about team motivations. This can increase the accuracy of odds and the overall profitability. This info is already included in the odds offered by sharp bookies.

Finding working strategies and predicting football outcomes accurately is not enough for long-term success. Based on my experience, a good staking strategy can make a not-so-good betting strategy profitable.

Make sure to also check the following article on betting sites without verification.

FAQ