7 Mathematical Betting Strategies I Used For Football
If you are looking for proven mathematical betting strategies, you are at the right place.
I have tried and used many betting methods and succeeded with the ones that have math as the starting point.
Betting strategies based on mathematics have already proven their worth. But to figure out which can serve you the best, you need to understand how they work and generate profits.
The most successful mathematical betting strategies hinge on identifying overvalued odds and implementing them together with a proven staking plan.
1. Exploit odds discrepancies with sure betting
Arbitrage betting, also known as sure betting, stands out as one of the least risky mathematical strategies.
It is based on finding odds differences between betting sites.
Arbitrage bettors cover both outcomes of a market to exclude the opportunity of losing.
It is a math-based wagering strategy because bettors need to calculate the right stakes, and they need to have a big enough odds discrepancy between betting sites.
Betting on these wrong odds, and covering the other outcomes at other bookmakers (on correct prices), can generate a guaranteed profit each time when using the right stakes
The base requirement for profitably using this mathematical betting strategy is that bookies must offer wrong odds.
This strategy might sound complicated. The odds at betting sites are moving fast and dropping in a matter of seconds.
To successfully practice this strategy, you can’t avoid the need/help of so-called sure bet scanning services.
They are crawling almost every bookmaker to spot wrong odds and help bettors who want to follow mathematical betting strategies such as sure betting.
My following article on how to find arbitrage bets can also be a great start if you need further info on how to spot these betting opportunities.
2. Withdraw bonuses with matched betting
Matched betting is a math-based strategy that focuses on finding betting sites with bonus offers.
The mathematical part of this strategy lies in finding betting strategies that are close to being sure bets.
This means finding a betting market where bettors can cover both outcomes at different bookies, resulting in almost 0% loss.
After finding these betting opportunities, bettors need to calculate the right stakes by using simple mathematics or a free bet calculator.
Matched bettors on the other side have developed a system to exploit these bonus offers and convert them into real withdrawable money.
This strategy is very similar to arbitrage betting. The only difference between them is that matched bettors can place sure bets even with free arbitrage finders.
With 0% return or even with a guaranteed but small loss, bettors can place matched bets and complete the rollover requirements.
Matched betting is the simplest and most time-efficient mathematical betting strategy. You can practice it when you have at least half an hour.
It does not require too much time because such small odds discrepancies between bookies can be found all the time.
3. Profit with long-term strategy of value betting
Value betting is one of the most profitable mathematical betting strategies because it takes advantage of betting opportunities with a positive EV (expected value).
Value betting is the most risky betting method on this list because bettors do not cover each outcome of a betting market.
The basis of value betting is very similar to arbitrage betting. Bettors need to find outcomes where a betting site is offering overpriced odds.
Mathematics comes to your advantage when the bets you place are constantly on the wrong odds.
To get profitable with value betting, bettors need to find odds that exceed the bookie’s profit edge + statistical probability of the outcome.
If you would like to see a more detailed comparison table of the industry-leading services, check my best value bet finder article.
4. Learn trading and scalping at Betfair
Sports trading and scalping at Betfair or other exchanges are mathematical betting strategies focusing on the aspect of dropping odds.
Bettors follow these techniques because of their sustainability.
These strategies do not depend on having access to soft betting sites that will limit your stakes when you start winning.
Both of these strategies require a deep understanding of sports events and the reasons why odds drop at a certain moment.
5. Use a database of sports statistics
Sports history databases and statistics can be the starting points of mathematical betting strategies and long-term profits.
I have used and tested a football statistics tool and prediction site that is offering an insanely profitable long-term betting strategy, too.
You need to understand the dynamics of a football match combined with a staking strategy to have a slight edge against bookie odds.
StatisticSports offers advanced statistics, tools for in-play betting, and strategy testing software as well.
When it comes to trying a new betting technique based on statistics, testing it without risking your own funds is priceless.
This test is based on historical data from tens of thousands of football matches and odds.
6. Avoid the martingale staking system
The martingale staking system is one of the oldest mathematical betting strategies. It is based on increasing the stakes every time you lose a bet.
The amount of stakes you will need to use in the next bet depends on how many losing bets the bettor has had in a streak.
Based on my experience, a piece of advice for football betting worth listening to is to forget the martingale system as a possible math-based strategy.
This staking system has a serious downside that many bettors don’t take into consideration. The downside is being forced to double your stakes every time you lose a bet.
As an experienced bettor, I can say with certainty that a losing streak of 12-14 bets is not uncommon.
Mathematically and statistically speaking, the martingale staking system can work if your base stake is a very small percentage of your actual balance.
This percentage should be even less than 0.2% of the whole bank to survive a losing streak of 12+ bets.
As a summary: even though the martingale is a mathematical betting strategy in theory, the real-life experience shows its significant weaknesses.
7. Learn the Kelly criterion staking system
It is one of the most profitable and secure staking strategies based on mathematics. The idea behind the Kelly criterion is to use stakes based on your actual betting account balance.
For example, if you use 3-4% of your balance every time, if you start winning, your stakes will grow proportionally. This will cause massive winnings down the road.
In case you face a longer losing streak, the more you lose, the smaller your future stakes will be. Kelly’s criterion is accepted as one of the most effective and safe mathematical staking strategies.
It is one of the most commonly used staking strategies by value bettors because of its reliability and the way it reduces variance in sports betting.
After using this method, I recommend it as the main staking system for value bettors.
Check the dedicated article on Kelly Criterion staking strategy focused on value betting.
Conclusion
The proven mathematical betting strategies are as follows:
- Arbitrage betting
- Matched betting
- Value betting
- Trading and scalping at Betfair
- Database of statistics for accurate prediction
- Martingale staking system
- Kelly criterion staking system
The Perfect Bet – source.
