Dropping Odds Strategy Explanation & Guide
Dropping odds strategies based on wrong betting lines and odds are the simplest yet guaranteed routes for successful betting.
Focusing on odds movement wagering strategies can guarantee both long-term and instant but lower profits.
Both approaches have their pros and cons when it comes to profitability, risk tolerance, and the bookie’s reaction.
What are the most effective dropping odds strategies?
The most effective dropping odds strategies are value betting with the help of odds comparison services or trading on exchanges.
An alternative way of practicing these techniques is by using one of the Pinnacle dropping odds alert sites I tested.
Other simple yet effective strategies based on odds-dropping are arbitrage betting and matched betting.
These are focused more on odds discrepancies between bookies, but with the goal of covering each outcome.
The following strategies are based on odds movement and odds dropping:
1. Spotting overpriced odds for value betting
In my experience, value betting is the most profitable dropping odds strategy by far. Having an ROI over 12% with live value betting is more than achievable.
Identifying overpriced odds is the basis of long-term profits.
Value betting is similar to the strategies below, except that you aren’t necessarily predicting which odds will drop.
If you can find odds and lines that are wrong/overpriced, based on mathematics, you will end up with profits in the long run.
I have been using this strategy for many years.
Value betting is based on finding outcomes that have overpriced odds or wrong betting lines.
The odds of these outcomes will drop eventually because the bookies will figure out the mistake.
Your task is to spot these opportunities before the odds move.
For this, you can use value bet finders or sure bet finders.
In both cases, you need to set up filters to compare your local bookie to sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports.
If you can constantly bet on odds that are higher than the lines at Pinnacle (they will drop in a very short time), you can beat the bookmakers and make long-term profits.
2. Finding odds differences to exploit bonus offers
Matched betting is the simplest dropping odds strategy, and tens of thousands of bettors have already taken advantage of it.
It’s not as strictly related to dropping odds, but more like on odds differences between bookies.
By covering both outcomes on a market (1 at the bookie with the bonus and the other outcome at another bookie) you can complete the bonus rollover requirements without risking your funds or the bonus.
I’m including this technique as an odds-dropping strategy because, in most cases, one of the outcomes is offering a slightly overpriced odd.
And as I already mentioned, these odds will drop sooner or later.
3. Using odds discrepancies on sure bets
Sure betting takes advantage of overpriced odds and discrepancies between sportsbooks. This technique is also risk-free and can offer a consistent profit for a long time.
If you can spot wrong odds at your bookmaker, with arbitrage betting, you can place a bet on it and cover the other outcome at another bookie.
With the right stakes, you can realize a guaranteed profit no matter the outcome.
Arbitrage betting is the surest technique to profit from odds that are wrong and will eventually drop.
You can harvest those mistakes before the bookie can spot them.
More info and my guide here: Is arbitrage betting possible?
You can also check my article on the best arbitrage betting software, which helps you find overpriced odds before they drop.
4. Betfair trading and scalping
Identifying odds that will drop needs some experience, but if you have the knowledge, you can generate a good income from it.
It’s not as easy as it sounds.
But if you can correctly predict odds that go on to settle (pre-race or pre-game) at lower odds than you placed in your bet, then what you have is “value” and will offer long-term profits.
You can read more about the topic in the following articles:
What are the basic steps for a successful odds-dropping strategy?
Steps of odds movement strategies:
- Find an odds comparison site that scans the bookmakers and has a history of the odds (like OddsJam for bettors from the USA & Canada)
- Find bookmakers with sharp odds (check my Pinnacle Review)
- Follow those bookmakers at the website, and if you see significant odds dropping (more than 8% – 10%) at sharp bookmakers ->
- Check if at your bookmakers the odds are still unchanged, not dropped
- Bet on them if the odds are good
This strategy of betting on odds movement is based on finding matches where the odds have dropped or will drop significantly.
You can spot these by comparing your local bookies to lines at sharp bookmakers.
The smart bettors have to find a bookmaker that is slower to react to these changes, and at those bookmakers, you can take advantage of placing the bets with higher odds.
Most smart bettors are using Pinnacle to define the sharp odds and lines.
A smart bettor should make a profit in the long run if the bets placed were at higher odds than at Pinnacle.
In pre-match betting, the closer the starting time of the match is, the odds are sharper at Pinnacle.
Defining the real probability of a market or an outcome of a sporting event gets more accurate as the bookmakers get more and more information about the match.
Where to start learning odds-dropping wagering techniques
Most of the markets at sports events are easy to learn, like 1×2, over/under goals or corners, next goal or corner. But some markets are not so obvious to everyone. For example, a goal handicap of -0.25 is not so simple to understand.
To know your chances and bet smart, you need to research and learn every market you may bet on. This way, you can avoid some of the beginner mistakes that could cost you a lot.
Deep knowledge of smart sports betting needs time and experience. You have to be patient and pay attention to trends. If you are watching enough of a sport and betting on it, after a while, you will notice that you can foresee the dynamic of that player or team.
This kind of trend I experienced in tennis, or with my basketball betting strategy. If you have enough experience, you can notice when a player is getting tired or enraged. These moments are the easiest ones to make smart money on.
A small example of placing smart bets on tennis:
I saw a lot of tennis matches where one of the players was tired and nervous.
One of my easiest profits from tennis betting was a sad moment for the player.
She got nervous after losing several games and started to cry.
On the stream, I saw clearly that the eyes of lady were full of tears. In these moments, if you want to make good profits, you have to act fast.
I placed bets against that tennis player. Winning those smart bets was not a surprise at all.
The role of bookie scanners in odds dropping
This odds-dropping strategy is similar to the ones I already mentioned.
You can find several scanner services that scan both sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers (they are the ones with the most mistakes in defining odds).
How are bookmaker scanners working?
Bookmaker scanners, or by other names, arbitrage scanners are getting odds from a lot of bookmakers.
These betting analysis tools compare odds between bookmakers.
If they find a fair difference between odds, the scanner will display that match and the market.
These scanners are a big base and help smart bettors like arbitrage bettors and value bettors.
Using these arbitrage scanners, you can reach these smart betting opportunities at the wrong odds.
For beginners, the easiest way to start arbitrage betting is by subscribing to services that offer pre-match (before the event starts) arbitrage opportunities.
This is the best way to start getting experience because the odds are moving slowly.
You will have more time for calculating stakes and placing the bets.
Want to learn about smart sports betting strategies like arbitrage betting? Check my following article about how to find sure betting opportunities.
Why develop your dropping odds betting strategy?
In order to be successful with smart sports betting in the long run, you need to learn and develop constantly.
I have several working, smart betting strategies, each based on dropping odds.
Even though they are proven to be profitable periodically, I am making statistics.
In these tables, containing my bets, I am making calculations and forecasts about the profitability of my betting strategy.
Bookmakers are getting smarter, so if you want to stay in the smart betting business and be a profitable smart bettor, you have to do your homework too.
Things I do to get my dropping odds strategy better:
- Export or copy my betting history
- Make profitability calculations with different kinds of money management strategies
- Filter every kind of market and odds range to find weak spots that are not profitable
A lot of betting strategies do not require us to fully understand every rule of the sport we are betting on.
Arbitrage betting is one of these smart betting strategies.
In order to be confident and profitable in sports betting, we need to know properly most parts of the sport we are betting on.
Learning the rules of a sport from Wikipedia or from any website is very basic, you have to do in order to bet smart and win.
What do fast-changing / dropping odds mean in football?
Dropping odds in football refers to a situation where the odds for a particular outcome in a match (such as a win, loss, or draw) are getting shorter.
This means that the odds are decreasing, and the likelihood of that outcome occurring is increasing.
Dropping odds can be an indication that there is a shift in the betting market, and can be caused by a variety of factors such as team news, injuries, or unexpected results.
Dropping odds can be useful for bettors, as they can indicate that the market is becoming more favorable for a particular bet.
Why do odds drop in football?
Odds in football can drop for many reasons, including injuries, unexpected results, goals, corners, etc.
Below are some reasons for great odds fluctuations in football events:
- Team news and injuries:
The announcement of a key player being unavailable for a match can cause the odds to drop for the affected team and also increase for the opponent. - Unexpected results:
If a team that is not expected to win a match ends up winning, the odds for future matches involving that team may drop. This can happen more often at in-play tennis matches when the underdog breaks several times in a row. - Weather conditions:
The weather can play a significant role in football matches and can affect the odds. Heavy rain or strong winds can make it harder for teams to play their usual game, which can affect the odds. - Referee assignments:
Assignments of known strict or lenient referees can affect the odds of a match. - Public betting:
When a large amount of money is placed on a certain team or outcome, the odds may drop to reflect the increased likelihood of that outcome occurring.
Conclusion
Dropping odds in football can appear at any time, but they are typically more prevalent closer to the start of a match.
This is because, as the match gets closer and more information becomes available, such as team lineups and injuries, the odds may change to reflect this new information.
However, odds can also change during a match if there are significant events such as a goal or a red card.